Topline
A series of recent military moves by North Korea is raising concerns that President Kim Jong Un is planning to seriously escalate the threats beyond posturing at a sensitive time for global diplomacy—with some experts openly wondering if Kim will go as far to wage war with the South, while others suggest it’s another effort by North Korea to pressure the West.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attends a ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi on March 1, ... [+]
Key Facts
For months, North Korea has been testing weapons near South Korea and Japan, including firing intercontinental ballistic missiles potentially capable of carrying nuclear warheads to the U.S. mainland, launches that have coincided with efforts by North Korea to strengthen its partnership with its most important ally, China.
North Korea said last week it tested a new missile with a hypersonic warhead that could be capable of going undetected by the South, and on Friday it claimed to have conducted another trial of an “underwater nuclear weapons system” in the Sea of Japan.
North Korea has said the moves—which come after it launched hundreds of rounds of underwater missiles near the South Korean border earlier this month—are in response to South Korea’s increased alliance with the U.S.
North Korea has also strengthened its alliance with Russia amid its war with Ukraine by sending missiles at a time when Ukraine’s weapons supply is dwindling, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit North Korea “at an early date,” North Korean state media said Sunday, a move likely to add to fears expressed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the two dictators could share their expertise and resources to develop more dangerous weapons.
Kim announced last week North Korea was abandoning any talks of reunification with South Korea, declaring it a “hostile state” and threatening to deploy nuclear weapons “if the enemies ignite a war,” while warning North Korea has “no intention of avoiding” warfare, North Korean state media said.
The maneuvers appear to be more than North Korea’s typical posturing, two veteran analysts—former State Department official Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Heckler—observed in a recent article for the U.S.-based website on North Korea, 38 North, declaring Kim has “made a strategic decision to go to war.”
Other analysts, however, have argued the threats are just that, and are being made in order to push the U.S. take North Korea more seriously and reduce sanctions it failed to alleviate through its engagement with former President Donald Trump’s administration.
Crucial Quote
Park Won-gon, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, told the New York Times North Korea is aware it could not win a war and that starting one would be “suicidal,” adding “they would love their enemies to believe that they could, because that could lead to engagement and possible concessions, like the easing of sanctions.”
Key Background
North Korea—one of the most isolated nations on Earth—has been trying for years to ease the broad range of U.S.- and United Nations-imposed economic and financial sanctions largely designed to pressure North Korea to end its nuclear weapons programs. North Korea has been ramping up its military activity over the past several years, often exploiting global instability—between Republicans and Democrats in Washington, China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine. The North has a history of increased aggression during times of political uncertainty for its adversaries. Both the U.S. and South Korea are holding elections this year. In 2012, when both the U.S. and South Korea held presidential elections, North Korea fired a long-range missile, claiming the move was intended to deploy a new satellite. It also conducted a nuclear test just before the 2016 U.S. presidential election. After talks between Trump and Kim ended without resolution in 2019, North Korea has dismissed any attempts from the U.S. at re-engagement.
Tangent
North Korea fired a record number of missile tests in 2022, more than 90, including 23 in a single day. North Korean missile launches and nuclear tests have increased significantly under Kim, with more than 75% of the 270-some deployed since 1984 happening since he took power in 2011.
